The numbers behind the pump
If you’ve been feeling the pinch every time you fill up, it’s not just in your head—it’s hitting your bank account for real. Diesel prices in the UK just hit an all-time high of 199.33p per litre, according to the RAC. This blows past the previous record of 199.09p set back in June 2022. Gasoline is also feeling the heat, sitting at an average of 174.23p per litre, its highest level in four years.
The supply chain drama
The vibes are off in the global oil market, and the root cause is the ongoing US-Israel war with Iran. Because the Strait of Hormuz—which handles about 20% of the world’s oil—has been effectively shut down by the conflict, global supply is struggling. When supply drops, the price of Brent crude spikes, and since every $10 increase per barrel adds about 7p to the cost of a litre of fuel, the math isn't mathing in our favor. On top of that, Russia’s export ban on diesel, triggered by attacks on its refineries, has further squeezed the supply.
The Trump factor
To make the plot thicken, US President Donald Trump is mulling a ban on US diesel producers selling overseas. Since the UK relies heavily on imports from the U.S. and Norway, this is a massive red flag. Experts are divided: while it might drop prices in the U.S. short-term, it could absolutely wreck the market for the UK and Europe. If this ban happens, we could be looking at even higher pump prices.
What happens next?
Don't expect relief anytime soon. Simon Williams from the RAC says pump prices only react to the wholesale market with about a two-week lag, and we won't see a drop until there is a sustained period of lower oil prices. While the government has previously paused a 5p fuel duty hike until the end of December, Chancellor John Healey hasn't dropped any hints yet on what the upcoming October Budget will do to ease the burden. For now, it’s a highkey waiting game.
