What is going on
With Election Day less than three weeks away, the 2026 midterm cycle is entering its final, high-stakes stretch. President Donald Trump is actively campaigning across the country, including a recent rally in Bullhead City, Arizona, to urge voters to support Republican candidates. During these events, Trump is framing the upcoming election as a binary choice for the future of the nation, calling for supporters to vote for the GOP ticket from the top of the ballot to the bottom. At the same time, the administration is facing a difficult political environment, with recent polling indicating a dip in the President's approval ratings to 36% and concerns about inflation dominating the national conversation.
How we got here
- November 2024: President Trump campaigned on promises to lower the cost of living, including vows to reduce gas prices and mortgage rates.
- February 2026: The State of the Union address highlighted partisan divisions, with Trump criticizing Democrats for their reactions during his speech. Around this time, research suggested that the tariff regime contributed significantly to inflation.
- February 2026: Conflict involving Iran began, which later disrupted oil shipments and impacted energy prices.
- July 2026: Residential electricity costs saw a 12.5% increase by this point in the year.
- October 2026: New polling data showed that 60% of voters cite the cost of living as their primary worry, as the midterms moved into their final weeks.
Why it matters
Arizona has emerged as a central focus of the midterm map, and the administration's ability to maintain momentum there is viewed as critical for the GOP. While Republicans maintain an edge on issues like border security and crime, voters are currently focused on their personal financial reality. With a 14-point gap between Democrats and Republicans on which party is "fighting for people like them," the election has become a test of whether the GOP can shift the narrative away from economic grievances before ballots are finalized.
What happens next
In the final days leading up to Election Day, both parties are expected to intensify their outreach to voters. The GOP will continue to rely on rallies to energize their base and support candidates like those in the Arizona lineup, including Rep. Andy Biggs and Sine Kerr. Meanwhile, voters will decide whether to prioritize their economic concerns—such as grocery and energy costs—or align with the partisan messaging provided by the candidates. The outcome will determine the control of Congress and set the trajectory for the remainder of the President's term.
FAQ
What are the main economic concerns for voters? Voters are primarily concerned with the cost of living, with 60% of people identifying it as their biggest worry, overshadowing issues like taxes or government spending.
How does the current economy compare to campaign promises? Despite 2024 campaign promises to lower costs, groceries prepared at home have risen 4% since November 2024, and gas prices are up 47% since February 2024.
What is the President's current approval rating? According to recent polling, the President's job approval has dipped to 36%, which marks his lowest rating in that specific survey.
