The economic gap
Real talk: the vibes are off for a lot of Americans right now. Despite solid economic growth and low unemployment, nine out of ten people say prices are the #1 thing shaping their take on the economy. During his 2024 campaign, President Trump made big promises to lower the cost of living—vowing to get gas below $2 a gallon and mortgage rates to 2%. Fast forward two years, and those numbers are looking highkey different.
Why prices are still climbing
It’s not just one thing; the plot thickens when you look at the supply chain and policy. Economists point to a few major factors:
- Tariffs: New research from the New York Fed suggests the current tariff regime added about 2.9 percentage points to inflation as of February. Without them, prices might have actually dipped.
- Geopolitics: The conflict with Iran that kicked off in February has disrupted oil shipments, which hit the price of gas, diesel, and electricity hard.
- Cumulative inflation: We’re still dealing with the ripple effects of five years of post-pandemic inflation.
The reality check
- Groceries: Even though the president promised cheaper food, the cost of groceries prepared at home has climbed 4% since November 2024.
- Energy: Gas prices are up 47% since February 2024, hovering around $4.37 a gallon. Meanwhile, residential electricity costs jumped 12.5% through July, and natural gas prices saw a massive spike of 106% in the same timeframe.
White House spokeswoman Taylor Rogers pushed back, saying the administration has "stopped Biden's inflation crisis" and delivered wins like record 401(k) highs, large tax cuts, and over a million private-sector jobs.
Why it matters
Consumers lowkey judge the economy by how much their weekly essentials cost compared to five years ago, not just current metrics. As the midterms approach, this gap between campaign rhetoric and the price at the register is a massive pain point for voters who feel like the promised economic relief is ghosting them. Say less, the wallet struggle is real.
