The mood is lowkey heavy

Real talk: the vibes are totally off when it comes to the economy right now. With the midterm elections creeping up in less than three weeks, people are feeling the pinch, and they aren’t shy about it. According to an exclusive Harris poll, nearly 61% of Americans straight-up believe the country is in a recession, even though, technically, we aren’t.

It’s not just one group feeling the heat. Independents, rural voters, and even Republicans are feeling a sense of exhaustion. Roughly 65% of independent voters—the group that usually decides who wins these races—say the economy is worse than it was back in September 2024. That’s a massive jump, and it’s giving major stress to campaigns everywhere.

Why everyone is sweating

It’s the basics that are hurting: groceries and gas. Two-thirds of people polled named these as their #1 concern, followed by general living expenses and healthcare. September inflation hit 3.7%, which is the highest pre-midterm reading we’ve seen since 1990, excluding the pandemic.

Energy costs are especially brutal, with gas prices sitting about $1.20 higher per gallon than this time last year. If you’re driving in California, you’re feeling that the most, with average prices hitting $6.20 per gallon. It’s no wonder people are feeling like they’re in "survival mode." In fact, 40% of rural Americans say one random bill could completely wreck their finances.

Who has the answers?

If you're looking for a hero to fix this, don't hold your breath. Half of independent voters think neither the Democrats nor the Republicans have a real plan. Even among the parties, people are split; while most people agree there is an affordability crisis, they’re still debating who is actually going to do something about it. Candidates like James Talarico and Abdul el-Sayed are already trying to address these frustrations on the campaign trail, acknowledging that people feel like they’re drowning in these costs.

Why it matters

When voters are stressed about how to pay for gas and groceries, they tend to take it out on the people currently in charge. Since independents are feeling more pessimistic than ever, the upcoming midterms are looking like an absolute toss-up. Whoever can actually convince voters they have a fix for the affordability crisis—rather than just pointing fingers—might be the one who ends up with the W.