The looming shift in US-Israel policy
President Joe Biden was on the verge of taking what his top Middle East adviser, Brett McGurk, calls "draconian measures" against Israel in April 2024. The pivot point came after an Israeli military drone strike resulted in the deaths of seven World Central Kitchen aid workers in Gaza.
According to McGurk, who served as a national security adviser to four presidents, Biden was "fed up" with how Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was managing the war. Cutting off U.S. weapon shipments was "very much on the table" at that moment. However, the U.S. received intelligence that Iran was preparing an "unprecedented" aerial assault on Israel, forcing the administration to focus on regional defense instead.
The diplomatic high-wire act
In his new memoir, Brink, McGurk recounts a blunt exchange between the two leaders during that period. He claims Biden warned Netanyahu, "You think I'm Santa Claus? No Santa in Israel, pal," signaling the fragility of U.S. military support.
McGurk, now a CNN contributor, argues that a full cutoff of U.S. weapons wouldn't have necessarily ended the war given Israel’s own massive arms industry. He suggests that aggressive public pressure might have actually backfired by hardening Hamas's position in negotiations. The administration prioritized preventing a wider regional conflict, even while dealing with Iranian-backed proxy attacks on U.S. forces.
Iran and the nuclear tension
As the war in Gaza progressed, tensions with Iran surged. In late 2024, the Biden team and Israeli officials debated how to handle Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Netanyahu pushed for preemptive strikes on nuclear sites like Fordow—a facility buried in a mountain. While the Biden administration was prepared to act if Iran made a "dash" toward weapons-grade uranium, they opted to issue warnings to Tehran rather than launch immediate strikes.
Why it matters
This inside look reveals just how close the U.S. came to a major policy reversal regarding its strongest regional ally. It’s giving high-stakes geopolitical drama, and honestly, the plot thickens when you consider how much global security hinged on a single Iranian missile launch preventing a U.S.-Israel diplomatic fallout. Real talk, the administration’s strategy of balancing aid with deterrence was a massive tightrope walk.
