The shift in momentum
Real talk: the GOP’s 2024 gains with Latino voters might be hitting a wall. Remember when Donald Trump made big moves in majority-Hispanic counties, improving his vote share by about 6 points compared to 2020? That energy was supposed to carry the party through the midterms, but the latest data shows the vibes are off for Republicans.
A new NBC News/Telemundo poll released Sunday reveals that 59% of Latino registered voters now prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress, while only 35% are backing the GOP. That 24-point gap is double what it was in September 2024. A separate CBS News/YouGov survey mirrors this, showing 60% of Hispanic likely voters backing Democratic House candidates.
Why the numbers are dipping
It’s giving economic frustration. While Trump previously connected with voters on financial issues, the tables have turned. According to the NBC poll, 74% of Latino voters disapprove of his handling of the economy, and 78% are unhappy with how he’s dealing with the cost of living. Nearly two-thirds say his policies have actually hurt their wallets.
Inflation is the main character in this story—it's the top issue for 33% of those polled. Plus, the ongoing war with Iran is keeping gas prices high, with 91% of Hispanic voters in the CBS survey linking the conflict directly to oil costs.
The immigration divide
Then there’s the border policy. A massive 67% of Latino voters told pollsters that the current immigration crackdown has gone too far. This has even caused friction within the GOP. Rep. María Elvira Salazar (R-Fla.) recently called out the administration for going “too far,” suggesting Hispanic voters feel “betrayed.” Trump hit back, calling her weak on the border, though the party’s broader image is suffering: 62% of those polled now hold a negative view of the Republican Party, a sharp jump from 46% last year.
Why it matters
Republicans were counting on these specific voters to keep the House, with several pickup opportunities centered in majority-Hispanic districts. If these numbers hold, the GOP’s path to maintaining control just got a lot harder. It’s a total L for their midterm strategy.
