The mood vs. the reality

Heading into this year’s Conservative party conference in Birmingham, the vibes are objectively better than last year. There is a general consensus that Kemi Badenoch has stabilized her leadership, and the infighting that defined the party for years has, for now, gone quiet. But behind the scenes, some MPs are keeping it real: the party is still polling in a distant third place.

One MP noted, “The mood is better but the facts are still very poor.” While Badenoch is currently secure in her position, the party remains stuck in a rut, polling even lower than the 2024 election cycle that saw them get absolutely bodied at the polls.

The strategic pivot

Badenoch is leaning hard into a strategy of winning back voters who fled to Reform UK. This includes a platform focused on restricting social housing to non-Britons, stripping citizenship from dual nationals convicted of serious crimes, and cutting welfare benefits. They’ve even pledged to slash overseas aid to fund 50,000 new prison spots.

It’s a bold move, but it has some centrist Conservatives stressed. There’s a fear that by chasing the right, the party is neglecting the moderate, 'politically homeless' voters in places like Surrey and Oxfordshire who flocked to the Liberal Democrats. Critics are worried this approach risks branding them as the 'nasty party' all over again—a term famously coined by Theresa May back in 2002.

The road ahead

Despite the risks, there’s a new sense of purpose, partly because the most vocal agitators have left the building. With Robert Jenrick gone, the party feels more aligned, leading one shadow minister to remark, “We have outsourced our toxicity to Reform.”

However, experts like Tim Bale are skeptical of the math. With the Tories struggling to climb above 20% in the polls, relying on the hope that Reform might implode and the current government might slump is a high-risk bet. For now, the Tories are enjoying the relative peace, but they are still fighting to prove they aren't irrelevant.

Why it matters

Even with improved personal poll ratings for Badenoch, she remains in negative territory. The party is choosing to bet on a strategy that prioritizes the right wing, essentially gambling that they can secure a path to power without winning back the center—a move that could define their success or failure for the next election cycle.