The hidden midterm stakes

While most of the midterm noise has been centered on the economy and local races, Republicans are shifting their focus to a long-term play: the Supreme Court. With only 34 days left until the midterms, GOP leaders are trying to make sure voters understand that if Democrats flip the Senate, the current judicial landscape could shift, and fast.

Why it matters

Sen. Steve Daines, R-Mont., is urging the Republican base to "connect the dots" between their vote and the future of the high court. Real talk: the math is pretty clear. If Trump doesn't have a Republican majority in the Senate, he won't be able to push through any new Supreme Court nominees should a vacancy open up. Considering Justices Clarence Thomas, 78, and Samuel Alito, 76, are creeping toward octogenarian status, and Chief Justice John Roberts, 71, and Justice Sonia Sotomayor, 72, aren't far behind, the bench is lowkey aging.

Rep. James Comer, R-Ky., has warned that if Democrats take control, they might try to expand the court or grant statehood to D.C. Meanwhile, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., has been clear that Democrats intend to block "MAGA justices" if they get the chance. Basically, the GOP is framing this as a 25-year decision for voters. If you aren't feeling the current campaign energy, the GOP is betting that the fear of losing their hold on the judiciary might be the final push to get voters to the polls. No cap, the outcome of this cycle could lock in the ideological direction of the courts for a generation.