Democrats take lead in early voting across key midterm races

If you’ve been scrolling through the news lately, you’ve probably noticed the conversation shifting to election turnout. Real talk: early voting and mail-in ballots are already rolling in, and the initial numbers show Democrats are carving out a pretty significant lead. According to state election data put together by TargetSmart and NBC News, 54% of the early votes cast so far are from Democrats, while Republicans sit at 30% and independents make up 16%.

This trend is playing out across some major Senate battles, even in states that usually lean red. In Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed holds a 55-36% edge over Mike Rogers. Iowa is seeing a similar vibe with a 57-29% split in favor of registered Democrats in the race between Representative Ashley Hinson and Democrat Josh Turek. Meanwhile, in Maine, Republican Senator Susan Collins is facing an early voting gap against Democrat Troy Jackson, with the numbers showing 55% for the Democratic side.

It’s worth noting that this data doesn’t show exactly how these people voted—just that they’ve already turned their ballots in. Stephen Voss, a political scientist at the University of Kentucky, pointed out that while it’s clear Democrats have the enthusiasm right now, we still don't know if this is a massive wave or just the usual crowd who always shows up.

We’re seeing some interesting shifts when comparing these stats to four years ago. In Nebraska, the Democratic lead has actually expanded compared to 2022. Virginia is also seeing a massive surge, with 519,000 ballots already in—that’s double what they had at this point in the last cycle.

Historically, the Democratic base has always leaned into early and mail-in options, while the Republican stance has been more complicated. President Trump has famously called mail-in voting "inherently corrupt," but he's recently switched up the energy. He’s been posting videos telling his supporters to stop waiting and get their ballots in early to secure a win.

Why it matters

Early turnout numbers provide a sneak peek into the momentum of these campaigns. While they don't guarantee a final result, they show which side is successfully mobilizing their supporters to get to the polls (or the mailbox) before the final deadline.