Bitcoin treasury companies are entering a crowded on-chain arena, but Saifedean Ammous thinks most may struggle to catch Strategy.
Ammous, the economist and author of The Bitcoin Standard, said he does not see a compelling reason to choose another Bitcoin treasury company over Michael Saylor’s Strategy. His comments came on Cointelegraph’s Proof of Thesis podcast.
Why Strategy has the edge
Strategy holds the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin treasury, according to the company’s Monday 8-K filing. It reported owning 847,666 BTC, acquired for $63.95 billion.
The company also reported a $5.02 billion U.S. dollar reserve to cover preferred stock dividends and interest on its debt. That cash cushion is a major part of Ammous’ argument: Strategy’s size and reserves may help it keep making payments during a serious Bitcoin drawdown.
Ammous said Strategy’s larger Bitcoin holdings could also let it borrow at lower rates than smaller treasury companies. He argued that past sell-offs did not push the company close to liquidation and that even a much larger drop could leave it in a decent position because of its cash on hand.
Strategy’s rough summer
The company’s financing model faced fresh scrutiny after Bitcoin fell below $60,000 during the summer. At the same time, Strategy’s STRC preferred stock traded well below its target price of $100.
Strategy responded by raising STRC’s annual dividend rate to 12%, repurchasing shares and building its cash reserve. It also sold some Bitcoin to help pay dividends and fund STRC repurchases before returning to Bitcoin accumulation.
The plot thickens here: a company can hold a giant BTC bag, but it still has financing costs and obligations outside the crypto market.
Ammous still prefers Bitcoin itself
Ammous said businesses with positive cash flow could put surplus money into Bitcoin as a long-term reserve asset. He expects more companies to adopt that model, while stressing that money needed for daily, weekly or monthly operations should not be treated as surplus.
Even so, he cautioned that investing in Strategy carries risks and said he prefers holding Bitcoin directly.
On Bitcoin’s outlook, Ammous said the cryptocurrency has probably already bottomed, though another crash could still send prices lower. He expects the next cycle to peak in 2029, with prices predominantly rising until then.
He also said smaller drawdowns could make Bitcoin more appealing to large asset managers as memories of previous bear markets fade. Asked for his best estimate for Bitcoin’s 2030 price, he pointed to roughly $200,000, based on the Bitcoin power-law model and near the lower end of the range he considered.
Why it matters
Strategy may have a first-mover and scale advantage in the corporate Bitcoin treasury game, but that does not make its stock or financing model risk-free. Ammous’ Bitcoin and price views are forecasts, not guarantees — and none of this is financial advice. Do your own research before putting your bags on the line.
