Bad news for the economy is, lowkey, a major W for risk assets like Bitcoin. The U.S. labor market dropped a mid performance in September, adding just 29,000 jobs—way under the 84,000 economists were expecting. Unemployment hit 4.2%, and previous months were revised down by 60,000.
The Macro Vibe Shift
Wall Street is reading this as a sign that the Federal Reserve might chill on interest rate hikes. After the Fed raised rates to 3.75%-4.00% on September 16, market sentiment was shaky. But with Fed officials like John Williams and Philip Jefferson suggesting there’s no rush to hike again, the probability of an October rate increase has plummeted from 70% to 14%.
On-Chain Check-In
Crypto is eating this up. The total market cap just cleared $3 trillion, the Fear & Greed Index is sitting at 71 (greed mode), and ETFs saw $102 million in inflows today. Bitcoin is trading at $86,152.75, up 1.57% today, with a recent high of $87,173.15. We’re dangerously close to the yearly resistance level of $87,354.33.
Technically, it’s giving bullish energy. The ADX is at 41.8, signaling a strong, mature trend. The 50-day EMA is above the 200-day, acting as a solid cushion. However, the RSI is sitting at 68.1—basically knocking on the door of the overbought 70 level where traders usually start dumping their bags.
Why it matters
While the momentum is high, remember that nothing is guaranteed. A December rate hike is still on the table, and yields are still elevated. Keep your eyes on that $87,354 level; until we get a solid daily close above it, don't get reckless. This isn't financial advice—just the data, fam. Trade smart.
