The shift in strategy
The Senate Leadership Fund (SLF)—the big-money machine backing Senate Majority Leader John Thune—is officially ghosting the North Carolina Senate race. Reports confirmed Friday that the group is pulling its ad spending for Michael Whatley, the Trump-backed candidate trying to fill the seat left by retiring Senator Thom Tillis. The SLF had already committed a massive $71 million to the race, but with internal data showing a rough path forward, they’re pivoting to play defense in other states.
Why North Carolina is proving difficult
Whatley, who previously served as chair of the Republican National Committee, has been up against former governor Roy Cooper. Despite a heavy advertising blitz from the SLF—which notoriously tried to tie Cooper to a 2024 train murder even though he wasn't in office at the time—Cooper has stayed consistently ahead. One recent AARP poll even put him up by 11 points. Real talk: the vibes for the GOP in North Carolina are just off, and the Cook Political Report now labels the race as "leans Democratic."
Where the money is going now
Republicans are currently sitting on a 53-47 majority. With VP JD Vance ready to break any 50-50 ties, they can’t afford to lose more than three seats. The SLF is taking that $30 million they had earmarked for Whatley and sending it to Kansas, where Senator Roger Marshall is currently fighting off a surprisingly strong challenge from Methodist pastor Adam Hamilton. Other toss-up races in states like Ohio, Texas, and Iowa remain top priorities for the party.
Why it matters
Midterm season is high-key stressful for party leadership. By cutting Whatley loose, the SLF is showing they’d rather prioritize incumbents in tighter races than keep throwing money at a seat that’s drifting away. With early voting in North Carolina starting October 15, the clock is ticking and the GOP is officially going into triage mode.
