The vibe check
Real talk: Australia’s political scene is feeling the pressure as the cost of living keeps rising. With populist parties like One Nation surging—reaching 25% in recent polling—mainstream parties are being tempted to pivot toward popular, easy-fix policies like migration caps and tariffs. But Mathias Cormann, the former finance minister and current secretary general of the OECD, says that strategy is mid at best.
The “copycat” trap
Cormann’s message to the Labor party and the Coalition is simple: don’t try to out-populist the populists. In his upcoming address to the Centre for Independent Studies, he argues that copying these policies just validates the original source. Basically, if you mimic the competition, you lose your own base to the center while failing to win over the populists' voters. “They lose twice: once to the original... and once to the centre,” he notes.
Productivity over politics
Instead of "arbitrary" migration caps—which could actually hurt industries like healthcare, aged care, and education—Cormann suggests focusing on productivity. He highlights that without migration, Australia’s working-age population would tank as the country ages, which is a massive contradiction when you're also trying to boost spending on health and defense.
He also called out the idea of using tariffs (popularized by Donald Trump and mirrored by some in Australia) as a total W-killer. He claims they won't lower costs for the average person and will likely just make life harder for farmers, miners, and builders. The TL;DR? There’s no "quick fix" shortcut here. According to Cormann, the only way out is to actually boost the economy so it grows faster than its costs.
Why it matters
Cormann’s warning highlights the growing disconnect between voter frustration over housing and energy prices and the complex economic realities needed to solve them. If mainstream parties decide to prioritize political optics over long-term economic strategy, he argues we’re just signing up for a poorer country in the long run.
