The matchup
It’s go time in Brazil. Today, voters are heading to the polls to choose their next president. The incumbent, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, is facing off against Flávio Bolsonaro in a race that feels like the plot thickens every day. To win outright today, a candidate needs more than 50% of the valid votes. If no one hits that magic number, we’re looking at a second round on October 25.
Who are the players?
Lula, 80, is the OG of the Brazilian left and is currently serving his third term. He’s a major main character in Brazilian politics, having previously governed during a massive economic boom. On the other side, we have 45-year-old lawyer and former senator Flávio Bolsonaro. He’s the son of Jair Bolsonaro, who is currently serving a 27-year sentence for trying to stage a military coup after his 2022 loss. The elder Bolsonaro is backing his son’s campaign, lowkey hoping a win could be his ticket out of prison.
Why Minas Gerais matters
If you want to know who’s going to win, keep your eyes on Minas Gerais. This massive region is basically the ultimate bellwether state. Since Brazil returned to democracy in the 80s, no one has taken the presidency without winning Minas. It’s giving classic political trendsetter vibes—whoever wins this state usually takes the whole thing.
Why it matters
Brazil is a massive global player, and this election determines who takes the reins on January 5, 2027. With neither candidate guaranteed a clear lead, the path to the finish line could be total chaos.
