The results are in
Bosnia and Herzegovina just wrapped up a major election, and the vibe check is intense. Milorad Dodik, the well-known pro-Russia nationalist, just declared a major victory for his party, the Alliance of Independent Social Democrats. Even though Dodik wasn’t actually on the ballot—he was banned from holding public office last year after defying international peace oversight—he dominated the campaign entirely.
His ally, Željka Cvijanović, is currently leading the race for one of the three seats in the country’s tripartite presidency with over 55% of the vote. Dodik is also claiming a "vast majority" in the assembly for Republika Srpska, the Serb-majority entity of the country. During his victory speech, he gave shoutouts to Donald Trump’s 2024 win and Vladimir Putin’s support, saying, "We will not give up, but continue for our people."
A country divided
To understand the drama, you have to look at how Bosnia is set up. The country operates on a complex system born from a 1995 US-brokered peace deal meant to keep the peace between Bosniaks, Serbs, and Croats after a brutal war. It’s lowkey failing to keep everyone on the same page. While the country has its eyes on the European Union, ethnic tensions are high, and voter turnout was a lackluster 42%—down about 8% from 2022.
Meanwhile, in other races, Darijana Filipović of the Croatian Democratic Union is leading for the Croat seat, and incumbent Denis Bećirović is holding a slim lead for the Bosniak seat. Both candidates have already claimed victory.
Why it matters
Dodik has been openly calling for Republika Srpska to separate from the rest of the country, famously claiming at a recent rally that Bosnia "is dead." He’s pushing separatist rhetoric that has many fearing a return to the instability that has haunted the region since the 1990s. With economic pressure mounting and the country struggling to move toward EU integration, the plot thickens for a nation that is still trying to heal from its past.
