The IPO Freeze

Wall Street is moving different right now. While there is plenty of liquidity—US mutual funds are sitting on roughly $17 trillion—investors are playing hard to get. The IPO market has effectively gone on ice, and it is lowkey all about the anticipation for Anthropic.

Anthropic, the SF-based powerhouse behind Claude, is prepping for a massive IPO with a potential $2 trillion valuation. If it hits, the company could pull in $100 billion, easily crushing the record set by SpaceX earlier this year. According to Matt Kennedy of Renaissance Capital, "Anthropic could raise more than every IPO from both 2025 and 2024 combined, easily."

No Cap on the Caution

Because everyone is saving their dry powder for the Anthropic drop, other companies are struggling to get their own deals off the ground. Oura pulled its Nasdaq listing last minute, and SB Energy—a data center firm backed by SoftBank—also hit the brakes.

Real talk: it is not just about Anthropic. We are seeing a mix of high oil prices, midterm election uncertainty, and global tensions. Investors are currently demanding a 20% discount on new offerings, compared to the standard 10% to 15%.

The AI vs. Everything Else Split

Finance professor Jay Ritter explains that the market is making a clear distinction: investors will throw money at "frontier" AI like Anthropic, but they are treating infrastructure like data centers as a commodity.

Furthermore, with the Fed hiking rates and Treasury yields hitting a 19-year high near 5.3%, investors have safe alternatives to stocks. Why risk a volatile startup when you can get a safer return elsewhere? The days of easy wins are over; by late September, the average US debut gain shrunk to under 1%.

Why it matters

We are in a "main character energy" moment for the market. If Anthropic nails its debut, it could unlock billions for the rest of the pipeline. If it flops, or if the company delays due to its own warnings about "existential risks," it could freeze the IPO market well into 2027. Investors are waiting for a W, but the pressure is highkey intense.