The numbers hitting your wallet
If you're feeling the burn every time you pull into a petrol station, you aren't imagining it. The average price of diesel in the UK is sitting at 198.32p per litre, according to the RAC. We are lowkey breathing down the neck of the all-time high of 199.09p, which we hit back in June 2022. Simon Williams, head of policy at the RAC, says it's "almost certainly" going to break that record this weekend as retailers pass on higher wholesale costs.
Why the vibes are off
It’s giving major supply chain instability. The ongoing conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has choked off the Strait of Hormuz. Since about 20% of the world’s oil and liquid natural gas flows through that waterway, closing it is a massive L for global supply. When wholesale oil prices jump, pump prices usually follow about two weeks later. Brent crude, our global benchmark, has been super volatile, swinging between $70 and over $120 a barrel depending on whether the market feels hopeful about peace or worried about more fighting.
The Trump factor
To make the plot thicken, US President Donald Trump is floating the idea of banning US diesel exports to keep prices lower for Americans. If he actually pulls the trigger on that, the UK—which relies heavily on US imports—would likely see prices spike even harder. While some analysts think a ban might hurt US production long-term, it would definitely be a rough situation for our wallet in the short-term.
Why it matters
Inflation is already tough, and energy costs are a huge part of that. With no clear end in sight to the regional conflict, the cost of moving goods around the country is going to stay high, which usually trickles down to everything else you buy. Stay informed, budget accordingly, and maybe look for local deals using the government's Fuel Finder tool.
