The situation on the ground
Things are looking grim in Ethiopia as the government and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) are officially pointing fingers at each other over a fresh outbreak of hostilities. This is a massive L for peace, considering the brutal two-year civil war that only officially ended in 2022. That conflict was devastating, with estimates suggesting up to 600,000 lives were lost.
Recent reports indicate that Tigrayan forces have seized control of federally administered airports in the region, leading Ethiopian Airlines to axe all flights to Tigray. Getachew Reda, a cabinet minister and adviser to Ethiopia's prime minister, claimed the TPLF launched an offensive into neighboring Afar and Amhara regions. Meanwhile, the TPLF is calling their own actions a 'defensive war' and accusing the government of an 'open invasion' via drone strikes.
The human cost
It's giving total chaos. In the southern town of Alamata, local mayor Mogos Shiferaw reported that drone and fighter jet strikes killed at least 14 people and injured 22 others on Tuesday. The mayor stated these were civilians and that schools were targeted, though the government hasn't commented on those specific claims. On top of that, the U.S. State Department condemned a separate drone strike that hit a food aid convoy.
Why it matters
We're lowkey looking at the potential collapse of the Pretoria Agreement, the deal that was supposed to keep the peace. The TPLF has even formed an alliance with other armed groups to challenge the government in Addis Ababa, and both sides have been accused of dragging their feet on key parts of the peace deal for months. With international calls for de-escalation from the African Union and the U.S. falling on deaf ears, it feels like the plot is thickening in the worst way possible. For the people of the Horn of Africa, the vibes are off, and the risk of famine and further loss of life is real.
