Steve Hilton: The GOP candidate trying to flip deep-blue California

The Long Shot

Steve Hilton is currently running for governor of California, and he is fully aware that the odds are not in his favor. Despite trailing his Democratic opponent, Xavier Becerra, by over 20 points in the polls, Hilton is campaigning with the kind of energy you’d expect from someone in a much tighter race. He is leaning into a classic populist narrative: the people versus the powerful.

The Platform

Hilton’s campaign is a mix of standard GOP talking points and some truly eccentric ideas. He’s suggested everything from abolishing the DMV and cutting gas prices to $3 a gallon, to creating a state-level version of Elon Musk’s "Doge" department to slice through government bureaucracy. He has also branded the long-delayed high-speed rail project between San Francisco and Los Angeles as the "bullshit train to nowhere" and plans to kill it if elected.

Some of his proposals are a bit more nuanced, like eliminating state taxes on the first $150,000 of income or launching a business school in East LA with free tuition for lower-income students. He’s trying to position himself as a "happy warrior" who is pragmatic enough to negotiate with anyone, even if his party label makes that a tough sell to California’s heavily Democratic voter base.

The Trump Problem

The biggest anchor dragging down his campaign is likely the national Republican party’s relationship with Donald Trump. While Hilton has tried to keep some distance—he’s stated he doesn't want national figures like Trump campaigning for him—he still received the President's endorsement during the primary. Balancing his appeal to moderate voters while feeding the base with anti-establishment rhetoric is a delicate dance. He’s essentially trying to tell voters, "You don’t have to like Trump," just look at the state of California and ask if they really want to keep voting for the same people.

Why it matters

California is a massive political stage, and Hilton's run shows how Republicans are trying to use frustration over the cost of living and housing to break a 16-year Democratic stronghold. Whether this "people-versus-the-powerful" strategy can actually turn the tide in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans two-to-one remains to be seen—but Hilton is betting that voters are looking for a change.