The Shift is Real

Real talk: the car market is going through it, and the leaderboard is getting a major shakeup. For the first time ever, Hyundai is projected to outsell Ford in the third quarter. According to a new forecast from Cox Automotive released Thursday, Hyundai is expected to move 511,421 units—a 6.5% jump year-over-year. Meanwhile, Ford is looking at a 7.1% dip, landing at roughly 504,172 vehicles.

If these numbers hold, Hyundai (which includes Kia and their luxury brand Genesis) will officially become the third best-selling automaker in the U.S., sitting behind only General Motors and Toyota.

Why Ford is Lagging

It’s not just bad vibes for the Detroit automakers—it’s about strategy. Ford has been dealing with production headaches for its F-Series trucks after supplier fires slowed things down. But the bigger issue? Hybrids. Gas prices are sitting at a high $4.48 per gallon, and consumers are lowkey over the gas-guzzlers. While Toyota and Hyundai have leaned into hybrid tech, Detroit brands are still hyper-focused on big V-8 engines, even with the Trump administration's deregulation.

"If you don't have vehicles to catch [consumers] where they are, then there are other manufacturers that likely would step into the gap," said Erin Keating, a Cox executive analyst.

Toyota vs. GM

It’s not just Ford feeling the heat. Toyota is aggressively closing the gap on GM for the number one spot in the U.S. market. While GM is expected to see a 5.2% sales drop for the quarter, Toyota is tracking a 2.2% gain. Toyota is currently trailing GM by less than 121,100 units for the year. If they pull it off, it’ll be a massive W for the Japanese giant—only the second time they’ve topped GM in annual U.S. sales.

Why it matters

This isn't just about brand prestige; it’s a warning sign for the U.S. auto industry. When companies bet big on V-8s while shoppers are hunting for fuel efficiency, they leave the door wide open for competitors to steal their lunch money. Hyundai’s rise shows that the market is prioritizing hybrid availability, and if the Detroit Big Three don't pivot, their sales stats might stay in their feelings for a while.