The macro plot thickens

Real talk: The vibes in the macro world are honestly all over the place right now. With experts lowkey debating whether AI is about to double our GDP or usher in a legit sci-fi apocalypse, it’s giving major uncertainty.

Matt Hougan, the chief investment officer at Bitwise, dropped a new note for investors yesterday that essentially frames the future of AI like one of those 'Choose Your Own Adventure' books. No matter which path the world takes, Hougan argues that Bitcoin ends up with main character energy.

Three paths to the same destination

If AI actually delivers on the 'superabundance' hype, productivity is going to moon. While tech gets cheap, value is going to flow into things that are actually scarce—like gold, premium real estate, and, you guessed it, Bitcoin.

If the AI bubble pops and we hit a massive 2008-style recession, BTC might sell off initially—because that’s just what risk assets do during a panic. But Hougan is betting on a nearly 100% chance of a government bailout. Since the AI infrastructure buildout is arguably the biggest investment project in U.S. history, the resulting money-printing would be massive. "This is exactly the environment bitcoin was built for," he says.

Finally, if we just muddle through with normal growth and interest rates, Bitcoin still wins simply by showing up. As government debt continues to pile up, steady flows from ETFs and corporate adoption are keeping the momentum alive.

The reality check

Hougan is definitely not saying this is a straight shot to the moon. He reminded everyone that BTC can be a total degen play, noting it tanked 50% during the 2020 COVID panic before it eventually ran up 20x.

He also flagged that the thesis isn't bulletproof. Potential Ls for crypto could come from global government crackdowns or, further down the line, quantum computing threats.

Why it matters

With BlackRock’s Larry Fink recently flagging that the U.S. economy is basically riding on the back of AI data center construction, the stakes are high. Hougan’s point is that for long-term holders, the specific macro drama matters less than the big picture: Bitcoin is positioned as the ultimate hedge against whatever the future throws at us. Just remember: none of this is financial advice, so don't go aping in without doing your own research.