The macro bleed
Bitcoin had a rough morning, opening at $85,543.66 and dipping as low as $82,776.30 before hovering around $83,178.54. It’s giving classic market panic, and the data shows it wasn't just a crypto thing. Wall Street also caught the L today, with the S&P 500 down 0.59% and the Nasdaq slipping 0.71%.
The real culprit? Crude oil. Brent is back over $101 a barrel, stoking inflation fears that have sent Treasury yields soaring—the 30-year yield hit its highest point since 2002. Even gold, the usual safe haven, is down. The market is jittery because of escalating tanker attacks near the Strait of Hormuz, with reports of daily incidents since October 2.
Leverage caught in the crossfire
While the macro situation lit the fuse, leverage definitely fueled the fire. According to CoinGlass, roughly $969 million in crypto positions were liquidated in the last 24 hours alone, with $644.47 million of that coming from long positions. When the price dips, exchanges force-close positions that can no longer cover their margins, creating a feedback loop of forced selling.
What the charts say
Despite the chaos, the broader uptrend isn't cooked yet. The 50-day EMA is still holding above the 200-day on both the daily and four-hour charts. Bitcoin's four-hour RSI sits at 32.2, which is clearly oversold—often a signal where bargain hunters show up. However, traders on the Myriad prediction market are bracing for more volatility, with high odds of hitting $80,000 this month. Bulls need to reclaim the $84,761 level to prove the dip is truly over.
Why it matters
When oil and yields spike, risk assets like Bitcoin often get hit the hardest. With Fed minutes dropping later today and tensions in the Strait of Hormuz keeping the vibes off, the market is in a wait-and-see mode. Remember: this is not financial advice, and market volatility is high right now.
