The missing storms
If you’ve been waiting for the first named storm of the season, you aren’t alone—but it’s actually not as weird as it feels. Even with November creeping up on us, the UK is still sitting at zero named storms for the season. Lowkey, the headlines lately have been more about drought than gales, but that might be the calm before the storm.
Why it's been so quiet
The main character in this weather story is the jet stream—a high-altitude band of wind that usually steers rainy, stormy systems our way. Usually, it visits the UK a lot during autumn. But so far? It’s been hanging out way to the north-west. This has pushed stormy systems away and left us with high pressure, warmer-than-usual temps, and way less rain for many of us. Some spots, like parts of Herefordshire, have only gotten a tenth of the rain they usually see by mid-October.
The drought reality
While the lack of storms sounds nice for our weekend plans, it’s coming at a cost. The weather patterns have left southern England so dry that the Environment Agency has officially declared "severe drought" in some areas because reservoirs are running dangerously low.
What comes next?
The plot thickens as we head into late autumn and early winter. The Met Office says the jet stream is expected to shift and gain strength soon, which could bring deeper low-pressure systems to the UK. We might see our first taste of disruptive weather later this week.
Looking further out, the strengthening El Niño in the Pacific is giving us some major signals. The Met Office's three-month outlook says there’s double the normal chance of it getting wetter and 1.3 times the chance of things getting windier. Since the storm-naming season started in 2015, we've gone half our years without seeing a named storm until after November 1st, so no cap, this is actually pretty normal.
Why it matters
Storms are named by the Met Office, Met Éireann, and the Netherlands’ KNMI to grab our attention so we can prep for damage or flooding. While we’ve been enjoying a quiet autumn, the switch to winter is when things usually pop off—and with El Niño acting up, we should definitely stay ready for a potential shift in the vibes.
