The numbers are in
The vibe in the U.S. labor market just got a bit shaky. According to the government’s Nonfarm Payrolls Report dropped Friday morning, the economy added a measly 29,000 jobs in September. Real talk: this was a total miss, coming in way under the 90,000 forecast. To make matters worse, August’s numbers were revised down to 133,000 from the original 162,000.
Meanwhile, the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2%, which is higher than the 4.1% predicted and the same reading we saw in August.
What this means for the Fed
For anyone watching the macro charts, the plot thickens. We’ve seen interest rates go on a wild ride this past September, but buyers finally dipped back into the bond market toward the end of the week.
Earlier in the week, the market had basically priced in a second rate hike from the Federal Reserve for their Oct. 28 meeting. But after this morning's weak data, the probability of another hike has tanked to just 23%. It’s giving “wait and see” energy for the Fed as they weigh cooling growth against stubborn inflation.
Why it matters
This data is highkey important because it signals potential weakness in the broader economy. If growth keeps stalling, the Fed might pump the brakes on rate hikes, which usually changes the risk-on mood for assets like crypto. As always, none of this is financial advice—just keep your head on a swivel and remember that market volatility is the name of the game right now.
