The status quo
If you were hoping for a dip in gas prices, the vibes are off. OPEC+ met online this Sunday and decided to keep oil production targets exactly where they are for November. This isn’t a shocker—market experts pretty much saw this coming. Don't expect any major changes to output policy until we hit 2027.
Why the supply is lowkey struggling
Seven core members of the group—Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, and Oman—made the call. Even though they have production targets on the books, actually hitting them is a different story. Exports are fluctuating between 60% and 80% of normal levels right now. The ongoing US-Israeli war on Iran is causing major disruptions, leaving the oil market looking pretty tight.
UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo noted that while some flow is still moving through the Strait of Hormuz, these countries are still pumping significantly below their agreed-upon quotas. In August, these core members put out 25 million barrels per day (bpd). That’s an increase from July, but it’s still about 5 million bpd below where we were back in February before the conflict kicked off.
The wallet impact
Real talk: Brent crude is still sitting above $100 a barrel. While prices took a slight hit Friday because European leaders tapped into diesel reserves per President Trump's request, that's still way up from the $73 range we saw before the war started. Because the conflict makes it impossible to accurately forecast future capacity, the group has paused its review on production limits. Essentially, they're keeping about 2 million bpd in cuts in place, keeping supply restricted and prices high.
Why it matters
As long as these output cuts remain in place and regional conflict disrupts infrastructure, that "high price" energy environment is sticking around rent-free. If you're planning your budget, factor in that gas and transportation costs aren't likely to drop anytime soon.
