The "Uptober" hype is officially active. According to our ETF tracker, spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in $102.7 million on Thursday and another $31.7 million on Friday, totaling $134.4 million in net inflows to start the month.
This green start is a mood shift from the end of September, which saw a $148.7 million outflow that broke a nine-session win streak. Still, September overall was a massive W, logging $2.65 billion in net inflows—the second-best month since October 2025.
The 'Uptober' Effect
Historically, October has been a monster month for Bitcoin, averaging a 18% gain over the last ten years. Stephen Wundke of Algoz noted that "traders feel there is more upside currently than there is downside."
Macro vibes are also shifting. Friday’s jobs report showed the U.S. added only 29,000 jobs in September with unemployment ticking up to 4.2%. Consequently, the odds of an October Fed rate hike cratered from 70% to 14%. A cooler labor market usually signals that the Fed might chill on rate hikes, which is highkey bullish for risk assets like Bitcoin.
Price Action and Sentiment
Bitcoin tested $87,173 on Friday—nearly hitting its September high of $87,354—before cooling off. As of Saturday morning, it was trading around $84,786.
While the inflows are steady, don't get too swept up in the hopium. Year-to-date ETF inflows are still shy of the $1 billion mark, and prediction markets on Myriad suggest there's a 93% chance Bitcoin won’t hit a new all-time high in 2026.
Why it matters
Markets are reactive. With cumulative net inflows at $58.1 billion and total assets at $101.1 billion, ETFs remain a major pillar for price action. Keep your eyes on Oct. 14 for the CPI report and Oct. 28 for the Fed meeting, as these will likely dictate if the current momentum holds or if the bears take over. Remember: stay risk-aware, don't over-leverage your bags, and this is definitely not financial advice.
