The Q3 Landscape
Bitcoin (BTC) is finishing the third quarter on a high note, even if the vibes are a little shaky right now. Despite dropping below $83,000 this week due to rising tensions between the US and Iran, the asset is still up over 40% for Q3. That’s lowkey impressive, marking its best performance for this quarter since 2017. For context, the average Q3 return since 2013 has been just 8.6%, so the bulls have definitely been eating.
Why the chart is moving
We’re currently seeing a battle between price action and liquidity. There’s about $30 million in ask liquidity sitting near the $85,700 mark, which has acted as a bit of a ceiling for BTC. Wednesday is a massive day for the charts as both the monthly and quarterly candles close, forcing a reset for the market.
Traders are keeping their eyes on the $82,500 level. Analyst Rekt Capital noted that this spot is similar to the accumulation patterns we saw back in 2022. If BTC can hold this as support, it could signal that we're moving into a reaccumulation phase. If it breaks? The plot thickens, and we might see a retrace back into the $60k–$80k range.
Macro factors
It’s not just about on-chain movement. The market is hyper-sensitive to the US-Iran situation, which has pushed oil prices back up to $95 per barrel. On top of that, we have the PCE inflation data dropping on Wednesday and nonfarm payrolls on Friday. With the Fed sounding hawkish—market odds for an October rate hike are sitting at 70.3%—traders are bracing for volatility.
Why it matters
While the Q3 gains are a massive W, the macro environment is still super uncertain. Remember, markets are currently reactionary to war developments and Fed policy, so things can change on a dime. Stay smart with your bags, keep your risk management tight, and keep in mind that none of this is financial advice.
