It’s been three years since the October 7 attacks, and the vibes in Israel are heavy as the country gears up for an election. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is currently staring down his biggest test yet: his own responsibility for the security failures that led to the death of around 1,200 people.

Who wants what

Real talk: everyone else who was in a top security role back in 2023 has already resigned. Netanyahu is the last man standing, and he’s holding onto his seat for dear life. His main opponent, former Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot, is running on a mission to replace him. Eisenkot’s personal stake is massive, having lost his son and two nephews during the war in Gaza.

Netanyahu is playing a different game. He’s lowkey blaming the 'deep state' for the failures. His camp has even floated conspiracy theories suggesting his own security chiefs intentionally left him in the dark or kept him from acting on warning signs—a claim he’s used to shift the heat off himself.

The intel drama

Reporting from major outlets like Haaretz, The Atlantic, and the Wall Street Journal suggests Netanyahu was warned by both the UAE and Egypt that something big was coming. Netanyahu has hit back hard, denying these warnings and even suing journalists who reported on them.

The political outlook

Despite the drama, the guy is a total political survivor. After years of war and regional chaos, some voters see him as a 'decisive leader' again. Polls are all over the place—some show him falling short of a majority, while others, like those from Channel 14, predict he’ll hang on. If the math doesn't add up for anyone, we might be looking at a hung parliament with him staying on as a caretaker.

Why it matters

This isn't just about his job. If Netanyahu loses, he loses his grip on influencing his ongoing corruption trial. If he wins, he’ll likely try to spin it as a mandate from the people to shut the whole thing down. Plus, with the U.S. midterms happening just a week later, the future of the $3.8 billion in annual U.S. military aid to Israel is basically on the ballot too. The plot thickens.